John Hayward's Profile
Number of items: 11
Date joined: Aug 24 2016
I am a Visiting Research Fellow in Mathematics at the University of South Wales. Before my retiremen ...Read more I am a Visiting Research Fellow in Mathematics at the University of South Wales. Before my retirement, I was a senior lecturer at the university, teaching specialist courses in system dynamics, mathematical modelling and agent-based methods. I was awarded a BSc in astrophysics, and a PhD in applied mathematics, from the University of London, and then spent my career as a lecturer in mathematics. My research is in mathematical sociology with applications to the spread of social phenomena, such as religions, political movements and civilisations. In the mid-1990s, I moved into system dynamics to help present models to non-technical audiences and improve model construction. Since then, I have used my background in physics to help understand the relationship between SD model structure and behaviour, developing the loop impact method and the Newtonian interpretative framework. I am currently a vice president of the UK chapter of the SD society, with responsibility for membership.
John Hayward's Work
#1
Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth
A model of the growth of the Christian Church in periods of religious revival. The growth mechanism
... Read more
A model of the growth of the Christian Church in periods of religious revival. The growth mechanism is similar to the spread of an infectious disease.
#2
Spread of Disease
A simple SIR model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
#3
Limits to Growth Archetype
Shifting loop dominance in a limits-to-growth archetype is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop I
... Read more
Shifting loop dominance in a limits-to-growth archetype is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
#4
Overshoot and Collapse
Overshoot and collapse behaviour is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
#5
Collins Theory of Geopolitics - Effect of War
The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin
#6
Collins Theory of Geopolitics - Logistical Load
The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin. I
... Read more
The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin. Includes limits to growth due the distance beween the empire's expansion zone and centre.
#7
Urban Business Expansion
The business sector of the Three Stock Urban Dynamics model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Lo
... Read more
The business sector of the Three Stock Urban Dynamics model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
sim
⋮ 25 runs
Download Model
Download Model
Loop Dominance
Limits to Growth
Shifting loop dominance
Urban Dyanmics
Loop Impact
#8
Inventory Workforce Model
Oscillations in an Inventory Workforce model are examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Meth
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Oscillations in an Inventory Workforce model are examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
sim
⋮ 158 runs,
5 downloads
Download Model
Download Model
Loop Impact
Loop Impact
Workforce
Inventory Control
Oscillations
#9
The Dynastic Cycle
The model of Feichtinger, Forst and Piccardi.
#10
Turchin’s Metaethnic Frontier Theory of Imperial Growth
A country builds its empire by attacking its neighbours and taking over both their land and their pe
... Read more
A country builds its empire by attacking its neighbours and taking over both their land and their people. The larger the empire becomes, the more resources they have available to take further territory by force. However the further they expand, the harder they find it to keep expanding due to the geographical and organisational logistics involved. Additionally the empire finds it harder to maintain social cooperation among its people, its asabiya.
#11
Rise and Fall of Empires
Empires rise through the desire for things such as power, peace & wealth. It can even attract others
... Read more
Empires rise through the desire for things such as power, peace & wealth. It can even attract others. However the rise of nationalism, institutionalism and the remoteness of the ruling elite can lead to imperial decline
sim
⋮ 2 runs
Empire
Overshoot and decline
Imperial Expansion
Power
Peace
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